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The Crocuses Of Bottoming Out In The US Recession

Appeared on May 18, 2009

In a commentary for Middle East Economic Survey, Shawkat Hammoudeh writes: They say crocuses are the early signs of spring. They bloom before the daffodils, tulips and certainly roses do, and while the weather is still cold. When such a metaphor is applied to the U.S. economy, some people are now referring to what I call economic crocuses as the ‘green shoots’ or ‘mustard seeds’ of the economic recovery. Admittedly, when I wrote a first version of this post in March,  I said that it was premature to talk about an early recovery in the US economy, but now in May the situation has strengthened and reinforced the theme of the first version, pointing to a faster than expected modest recovery in the coming months. I believe now that there are stronger early economic signs which signal that the U.S. recession has bottomed out.